The Chicago Bulls can lock up the No. 1 seed in the east tonight, but to do so they must beat the Heat in Miami. If that wasn’t enough, the Bulls might be without Derrick Rose yet again. Where should w place our NBA picks to find the best value tonight?

10* Free NBA Pick on the Chicago Bulls as they take on the Miami Heat set to start at 8:00 PM ET and will be televised by TNT.

Derrick RoseThe Bulls have been without their reigning league MVP Derrick Rose and have gone an amazing 17-8 in those games. Another Bulls all star Luol Deng will likely play tonight having been held out of the last two games with rib injuries. The Bulls hold a 2.5 game lead over the Heat in the Eastern Conference standings and a win tonight clinches the No. 1 seed and home court advantage throughout the Conference playoffs.

The Heat had been struggling with a 5-6 stretch and had a horrid 3-7 stretch in their last 10 road games. However, they have won the last four games and covered three of the against the spread. The level of competition though is suspect with three of the four wins against Charlotte, New Jersey, and Toronto. The lone quality win was in a 93-85 win at Madison Square Garden over the Knicks.

Simulator Projections

My NBA betting simulator shows a high probability that the Bulls will lose this game by five or fewer points. It also shows a 65% probability that they will win the game. Given these projections, consider taking advantage of the money and play a 6.5* amount on the line and a 3.5* amount using the money line.

Simulator shows a high probability that the Bulls will have between 53 and 57 rebounds and will out rebound Miami by a minimum of four boards. In past games, Chicago is a resounding 14-4 ATS when they have grabbed between 53 and 57 rebounds and are 29-14 ATS when they have had four to nine more rebounds than the opponent over the last two seasons.

Supporting System

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 99=51 ATS for 66% winning NBA picks since 1996. Play on dogs after having won five or six of their last seven games and is a top-level team winning 75% or more of their games and now playing a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games on the season. 

Here is a second system that has gone 178-114 for 61% winners since 1996. This is one of the best and simplest systems that can used independent of other sports handicapping methodologies and has made profits over the last 16 seasons. Play against home favorites playing on back-to-back days with game taking place in April. 

Game Situations

Chicago has done very well against winning record teams. They are a solid 41-27 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons; 16-6 ATS versus good three point shooting teams making 36% or better of their attempts this season. Miami is just  18-34 ATS versus good three point shooting teams making 36% or better of their attempts with the game taking place in the second half of the season spanning the past three seasons.

So, again playing a combination bet with this 10* Titan using a 6.5 star amount getting the five points and a 3.5* amount using the money line is my firm recommendation. However, this play will be graded as a 10* play using the line for the record keeping.