College Football Featured Pick of the Day by sportsprofitsystem.com

Take South Alabama at +14 spread against Mississippi State risking 2%

Ladd-Peebles Stadium will be rocking this afternoon when the Mississippi State Bulldogs square off against South Alabama Jaguars.
Given the fact that Southern Alabama is a much smaller school, this is a big game for them! Mississippi State is from one of the 5 “Power” conferences and when a team gets to test their mettle against tougher competition, it usually brings out the best in them as there will be no lack of effort, desire or motivation. The Jaguars have been looking forward to this date and view this game as their Bowl Game!

As for the Bulldogs, they are off to a 2-0 start this season. They have a solid QB in Dak Prescott, they are big and they are fast. Perhaps more importantly however, they are starting to believe in their own hype and are already getting full of themselves. We have seen their confidence build over the last two weeks as they started to click on both the offensive and defensive sides and although very premature, there is already talks of grandoise dreams. While confidence is a good thing, it can also cause a team to get complacent and begin to overlook smaller opponents.

The Jaguars are not a team that is going to win a national title anytime soon. They are also not a team that has the best athletes but they will be the team that is more motivated in this one. This will also be the Bulldogs’ first road game of the season. While they have put in impressive performances in their first two games, they had done so in the luxury of Davis Wade Stadium where the cowbells were ringing loud and proud. Tonight will be a different story and that can often times mess with the psyche of a young player. When the going gets tough, in a hostile environment, it is an entirely new challenge to battle through adversity. We do expect the Bulldogs to show a bit of rust being on the road in this one and although we see them winning, we don’t see that happening with ease.

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This is also a classic look-ahead spot for the Bulldogs as they have a huge game on deck in Death Valley against the LSU Tigers next week! The Bulldogs are naturally look at that game as their chance to make a statement in the SEC this season. LSU has a rather easy game on their schedule tonight as they are sizable favorites and in all likelihood, both teams expect that they will be undefeated when they meet next week. However that may not necessarily be the case if Mississippi State doesn’t give the proper respect to the opponents in front of them.

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to lay on the first road game of a season in a look-ahead spot. There are a lot that can go wrong for them. This game could be closely contested throughout, State could make some mistakes early and play from behind or State could have such a big lead that Dan Mullen pulls his starters in the second half allowing the Jaguars to grab a backdoor cover. We have seen the Bulldogs show their lack of discipline on the defensive end numerous times and that may give South Alabama their opening. This is not the ideal spot for the Bulldogs to lay this many points with arguably their biggest game of the season coming up next week against highly motivated and capable opponents. Take the points as they should come into play.

Other notable facts to consider:

Mississippi State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 road openers.
Dan Mullen is just 9-19 ATS versus an opponent with a winning percentage greater than .750
South Alabama not only won and covered but was impressive fundamentally in their season opener.

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Take San Jose State Spartans at +33 spread against Auburn Tigers risking 2%

Take San Jose State Spartans at +33 spread against Auburn Tigers risking 2%

This note is written by Sports Profit System www.sportsprofitsystem.com

The San Jose State Spartans will travel to face the #5 Auburn Tigers in a non-conference battle on Saturday night. This game kicks off at 7:00 pm EST from Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama and will be televised nationally.

The reason we have decided to release this selection early is mainly due to the fact that we believe this number has probably reached its max. Laying 33 points in a football game is a huge undertaking and tough to cover. After Auburn’s destruction of SEC rival Arkansas last week, the public is jumping all over the Tigers in this one, thinking that this will be a complete and total rout. While that may be the case, that still doesn’t necessarily mean that they will cover. San Jose State is a team that can put points on the board themselves and while they will more than likely not win this game, it is more than reasonable to believe they can keep this within 5 touchdowns.  

Auburn is fresh off a national championship game appearance last season and opened their season with a 45-21 win at home over Arkansas. The fact that the Tigers won in such convincing fashion last week has actually benefit us in this particular spot because Vegas has made Auburn backers pay a premium price! Let’s not forget that before a fortunate INT in the second half, the Tigers found themselves in a 21-21 tie at halftime. They should be careful to not look past the Spartans in this one because SJSU is a team that is capable of moving the ball on offense. 

San Jose State opened up their season with a rock solid 42-10 destruction of FCS school, North Dakota! In that game, the Spartans managed to pick up 23 first downs, converted 7 of 11 third-downs and finished the game with 406 total yards. QB Blake Jurich absolutely picked apart the North Dakota defense, completing 22 of 25 passes for 250 yards with 3 TD passes and added an additional 20 yards on the ground with a score. WR Tyler Winston had a huge game as well by grabbing 10 passes for 96 yards and a pair of touchdowns while Hansell Wilson caught four balls for 85 yards. The SJSU defense also played well as North Dakota finished with just 12 first downs, 4 of 12 on third down and 244 yards of total offense, a bulk of which came late in the 4th quarter after the starters had already been pulled.

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Auburn is not North Dakota, there is no question about that. But motivation to blow out a team does come into play a bit in this one. The Tigers were pumped up in their opener as it was the very first game of the season and they no doubt wanted to show the world that they hadn’t lost a step and deserved to be in the championship game last season. Thefore they went out and proved that against a fellow SEC opponent. In this particular matchup however, they may be a bit more complacent and think they can win this easily. It is those kind of assumptions that come back to bite a team. For San Jose State, this is THEIR national championship game! This is a matchup where they will get to test their skills against one of the best teams and go out and leave everything on the field; they have nothing to lose! Teams typically play up (or down) to the level of competition that they are facing, we expect the Spartans to elevate their game for this contest while Auburn might play a bit more lax and down to the perceived level of the Spartans. It should still be enough to get them the win but may well cost them the cover when laying this many points!

This is also somewhat of a poor scheduling spot for the Tigers. They have to play SJSU which is a team that is fairly unassuming and easy to overlook, before a big game against Kansas State on the road in their following contest. It isn’t uncommon for college kids to peek ahead and have their mind somewhat preoccupied by the next game. The Spartans aren’t the team that they were a couple of seasons ago and won’t lay down for anyone. We aren’t going to come out and say that we believe the Spartans can pull off the upset, because we don’t, in fact we would be surprised if that were to happen, but we do believe they will find a way to keep this game closer than most expect. At some point, Auburn is going to grab a big enough lead where they eventually ”call off the dogs” and take their foot off the gas pedal. It could be at 21 points, 28 points or it could be at 35 points, but that is the danger of laying this many points in a game! Even at a score of 43-13, when the Tigers are in no danger of losing, they are in danger of not covering the spread and may in fact take it easy in the final few minutes to avoid injuries for the important upcoming game. If the Spartans can put a few scores on the board, we feel that it is going to be tough for Auburn to cover this huge number. 

This is a line that we like and feel has probably reached its maximum and may only go down from here. We felt it is best to release this play early in order to take advantage of the inflated spread and get what is hopefully the best number possible prior to game time. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • SJSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win!
  • SJSU is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record.  
  • SJSU is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games.

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